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      印度信實工業的未來(下)

      來源:經濟學人 編輯:Helen ?  可可英語APP下載 |  可可官方微信:ikekenet
        


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      Interpreting these rumours is tricky.

      解讀這些謠言很費事。

      Perhaps they reflect prudent succession planning.

      或許它們是繼任規劃謹慎的一種表現。

      Mr Ambani is 65, not old for an Indian tycoon, but it is time to start teeing up the next generation of leaders.

      安巴尼現年65歲,作為一位印度大亨來說還不算老,但現在是時候開始培養下一代領導人了。

      Even if his children were to take over the running of some of the group’s major subsidiaries, they would ideally have years more experience at management and building teams before even being considered as candidates qualified to take over Reliance itself.

      即使他的子女將接手集團一些主要子公司的運營,理想情況下,他們在管理和組建團隊方面也應該再多有幾年經驗,才能被視為有資格接手信實的候選人。

      And Reliance’s history shows the drawbacks of leaving it too late.

      而信實的歷史表明,讓位太晚是有弊端的。

      Soon after Dhirubhai died in 2002 a brutal succession battle broke out between Mr Ambani and his brother, Anil, which ended with the company being split into two, and Anil’s side of the business faded into obscurity.

      2002年迪魯拜去世后不久,安巴尼和他的兄弟阿尼爾之間爆發了一場殘酷的繼承戰,最終公司被一分為二,阿尼爾所在的企業也逐漸淡出大眾視野。

      Whenever he departs, there is little debate that Mr Ambani’s exit would constitute a huge loss for the company.

      無論安巴尼何時離職,他的離開都會給公司帶來巨大損失,這一點毫無爭議。

      Reliance has a loyal cadre of managers but he is regarded as the driving force behind every facet of Reliance’s business from strategy to finance.

      信實擁有一批忠誠的管理人員,但他被視為信實從戰略到財務各方面業務背后的驅動力。

      He is seen as having the ability to deal with the complicated judicial, political and economic currents of India better than anyone.

      他被認為比任何人都有能力去應對印度復雜的司法、政治和經濟形勢。

      Whether in telecoms, energy or retail, Reliance has navigated and benefited from innumerable rules and rulings that make hamstrung competitors seethe with envy.

      無論是在電信、能源還是零售行業,信實都曾在讓陷入困境的競爭對手羨慕不已的無數規則和裁決中,找到正確的行進方向并從中受益。

      Ensuring that this continues will be a tall order for the next generation at Reliance.

      對于信實的下一代來說,確保這種情況持續下去將是一項艱巨的任務。

      Perhaps most important, Mr Ambani has continued a pattern that his father began: betting the firm on enormous and risky projects within India.

      也許最重要的是,安巴尼延續了他父親開創的模式:將公司押注于印度境內的大型風險項目上。

      Some of these wagers have not worked well: Reliance’s attempt to develop gas fields in the Bay of Bengal has been underwhelming, for example.

      其中一些押注并不奏效:例如,信實在孟加拉灣開發天然氣田的嘗試結果不盡人意。

      But some have been both jaw-droppingly daring and successful.

      但有些既大膽到令人瞠目結舌又獲得了成功。

      Reliance’s telecoms and digital operation required huge upfront investments—its assets are now $49bn, according to Bloomberg data, up from close to zero a decade ago.

      信實的電信和數字公司需要巨額前期投資--彭博社的數據顯示,目前其資產規模為490億美元,而10年前幾乎為零。

      And by bringing cheap communications to the masses it has helped transform Indian society.

      通過向大眾提供收費低廉的通訊服務,它幫助改變了印度社會。

      This may go some way to explaining the respect now shown to Reliance even by its critics.

      這可能在一定程度上解釋了,為什么現在即使是批評信實的人也對它表示尊重。

      Unlike classic crony capitalism where the extraction of rents is paramount, Reliance’s huge level of reinvestment mean its return on capital is modest: below 10% every year for the past decade.

      與獲取租金占首要地位的傳統裙帶資本主義不同,信實的巨額再投資意味著其資本回報率不高:過去10年,每年都低于10%。

      Already the next big bet is being lined up.

      下一個大賭注已經準備好了。

      Profits from refining are providing tens of billions of dollars for investments in renewable energy infrastructure in a country with a shortage of power generation and an over-dependence on fossil fuels that will need to be remedied soon.

      印度存在發電短缺和過度依賴化石燃料的問題,這些都需要盡快解決,煉油利潤為這樣一個國家的可再生能源基礎設施投資提供了數百億美元。

      One theory is that the annual meeting has been delayed while a break-up of the company is debated.

      一種說法是,由于公司分拆問題仍在討論之中,年度會議被推遲了。

      The firm is certainly in good nick.

      可以肯定的是這家公司狀況良好。

      After India went into lockdown in 2020 it brought minority investors, including Google, into its digital arm.

      印度在2020年實施封鎖后,信實就讓包括谷歌在內的少數股東入股了其數字部門。

      The cash was used to slash debt.

      這些資金被用于削減債務。

      Refining profits are at high levels, notwithstanding the recent imposition of a windfall tax by the government.

      盡管政府最近征收了暴利稅,但煉油利潤仍處于較高水平。

      Jio enjoys a steady subscriber base and rising tariffs.

      Jio享有穩定的用戶基礎和不斷上漲的資費。

      Reliance’s retailing arm is profitable and expanding.

      信實的零售部門正在盈利,且正在擴張。

      All this suggests Reliance, or its constituent parts, could plod on without Mr Ambani at the helm.

      所有這些都表明,在沒有安巴尼掌舵的情況下,信實或其組成部分仍可以艱難前行。

      But would the group still have the appetite to undertake some of the boldest bets in global business?

      但該集團還會有興趣在全球商業領域進行一些最大膽的押注嗎?

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