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      高通脹下一些落后國家還好嗎(上)

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      Finance and Economics

      財經版塊

      Emerging markets | Living the high life

      新興市場 高生活成本

      Cautionary tales from high-inflation economies

      高通脹經濟體的警示故事

      In recent months the world economy has come to resemble a badly microwaved dinner: generally hot, but with some bits merely lukewarm and others positively scorching.

      近幾個月來,世界經濟就像一頓糟糕的微波爐晚餐:總體上是熱的,但有一些地方不溫不火,有一些地方過于炙熱。

      Consumer prices globally are likely to rise by 4.8% this year, according to the IMF, which would be the fastest increase since 2007.

      根據國際貨幣基金組織的數據,今年全球消費價格可能上漲4.8%,這將是自2007年以來的最快漲幅。

      But price rises in emerging markets are running ahead of those in the rich world, and a few unfortunates, such as Argentina, Brazil and Turkey, are feeling particular pain.

      但新興市場的消費價格漲幅領先于發達國家,阿根廷、巴西和土耳其等少數國家已經感受到了特別的痛苦。

      Their experience helps illustrate how and when inflation can get out of hand.

      他們的經驗有助于展示通脹是如何失控的以及何時可能失控。

      Although inflation rates in emerging markets tend to be higher and more volatile than those in advanced economies, they did generally decline between the 1970s and the 2010s, much like those in the rich world.

      盡管新興市場的通貨膨脹率往往比發達經濟體更高,波動性更大,但在20世紀70年代至2010年代期間,新興市場與發達國家一樣,通脹率都有普遍下降。

      The median inflation rate among emerging economies fell from 10.6% in 1995 to 5.4% in 2005 and 2.7% in 2015, thanks to efficiency-boosting developments like globalisation and improved macroeconomic policymaking.

      新興經濟體的通貨膨脹率中值從1995年的10.6%下降到2005年的5.4%和2015年的2.7%,這要歸功于全球化和宏觀經濟政策制定等帶來的高效發展。

      The IMF expects consumer prices in emerging economies to rise by 5.8% this year, which is not a huge departure from recent trends; prices rose at a similar pace as recently as 2012.

      國際貨幣基金組織預計今年新興經濟體的消費價格將上漲5.8%,這與最近的趨勢相差不大;在2012年,房價也以類似的速度上漲。

      But some economies have strayed well above the mean.

      但一些經濟體已經偏離了,通脹率遠高于平均水平。

      Inflation stands at 10.2% in Brazil, 19.9% in Turkey, and 52.5% in Argentina.

      巴西的通貨膨脹率為10.2%,土耳其為19.9%,阿根廷為52.5%。

      Such high inflation reflects more than soaring food and energy prices.

      如此高的通脹反映的不僅僅是食品和能源價格的飆升。

      In advanced economies and many emerging ones, a jump in prices usually triggers a restraining response from the central bank.

      不管是發達經濟體還是許多新興經濟體,價格上漲通常會引發央行的抑制反應。

      That response is more powerful when central banks are credible, say because inflation has been low in the past, and the fiscal picture benign.

      如果之前的通脹率一直很低, 財政狀況良好,央行比較可靠的話,這種抑制反應會更強。

      Then people behave as if a price spike will not last—by moderating wage demands, for instance—which reduces inflationary pressure.

      好像在人們看來物價飆升不持續太久就會減輕通脹壓力,例如,采取降低工資需求等策略。

      This happy state can be disturbed in a number of ways.

      這種所謂的快樂狀態被其他多種方式擾亂。

      Compromising the independence of the central bank is sometimes enough to make the temperature rise.

      有時犧牲央行的獨立性足以讓局勢升溫。

      Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey’s president, has declared himself an enemy of interest earnings and leant on the central bank to reduce its benchmark rate, a step he claims will bring down inflation.

      土耳其總統雷杰普·塔伊普·埃爾多安宣稱自己抵制利息收入,并要求該國央行降低基準利率,他聲稱此舉將降低通脹。

      Over the years he has sacked a number of central-bank officials, most recently three members of the bank’s monetary-policy committee in October.

      這些年來,他已經解雇了多名央行官員,最近的一次是在10月份解雇了央行貨幣政策委員會的三名成員。

      Such antics have contributed to capital outflows and a tumbling lira.

      這樣的滑稽舉動導致了資本外流和里拉(土耳其貨幣單位)暴跌。

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      benign [bi'nain]

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      adj. 仁慈的,溫和的,良性的

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      turkey ['tə:ki]

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      n. 土耳其
      turkey
      n. 火

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      independence [.indi'pendəns]

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      n. 獨立,自主,自立

       
      advanced [əd'vɑ:nst]

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      adj. 高級的,先進的

       
      tend [tend]

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      v. 趨向,易于,照料,護理

       
      inflation [in'fleiʃən]

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      n. 膨脹,通貨膨脹

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      response [ri'spɔns]

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