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      中國經濟的增長--經濟學泰勒斯

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      掃描二維碼進行跟讀打分訓練

      Finance & economics

      財經板塊

      China’s growth (2) The Thales of economics

      中國經濟的增長(第二部分)--經濟學泰勒斯

      By one measure, China is the world’s most dominant economy

      從某種角度來說,中國是世界上最具主導地位的經濟體

      IN 2010, WHEN President Barack Obama welcomed his Chinese counterpart to a summit in Washington, DC, he greeted him with a handshake and a swift, shallow dip of the head.

      2010年,當美國總統巴拉克·奧巴馬(Barack Obama)在華盛頓特區舉行的峰會上歡迎中國領導人時,他與中國領導人握了握手,并快速點頭以示歡迎。

      The image of America’s president bowing before China made an arresting cover photo for the book “Eclipse”, published the following year.

      美國總統在中國領導人面前鞠躬的照片成為了次年出版的《Eclipse》一書的封面圖。

      The book, written by Arvind Subramanian of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, a Washington-based think-tank, predicted that China would soon come to dominate the world economy and that America could do precious little about it.

      這本由華盛頓智庫彼得森國際經濟研究所(Peterson Institute for International Economics)的阿文德·薩勃拉曼尼亞(Arvind Subramanian)撰寫的書籍預測,中國很快將主宰世界經濟,而美國對此無能為力。

      Your correspondent once included the cover image in a presentation at the Central Party School in Beijing.

      本報記者曾在北京中央黨校的一次演講中刊登過這張封面圖片。

      It caused quite a frisson.

      引起了相當大的震動。

      To gauge a country’s economic “dominance” Mr Subramanian combined its share of world trade, net capital exports and global GDP (measured at both market exchange rates and purchasing-power parities, which try to correct for international differences in the price of similar goods).

      為了衡量一個國家的經濟“主導地位”,薩勃拉曼尼亞綜合考量了其在世界貿易中所占的份額、凈資本出口和全球GDP(以市場匯率和購買力平價衡量,這兩項指標是為了盡量修正相似商品的國際價格差異)。

      He gave each attribute a weight loosely based on the IMF’s formula for allocating votes to its members.

      他根據國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)給成員國分配投票權的公式,粗略地給每個因素賦予了權重。

      His index, he argued, successfully captured Britain’s economic hegemony in 1870, its rivalry with Germany in 1913 and its eclipse by America in the subsequent decade.

      他認為,他的指數成功描述了1870年英國的經濟霸權,1913年英國與德國的競爭關系,以及隨后十年中英國逐漸被美國所替代。

      According to this measure, Mr Subramanian predicted, China would become the world’s most dominant economy by 2020.

      薩勃拉曼尼亞預測,按照這一衡量標準,到2020年,中國將成為世界上最具主導地位的經濟體。

      In the ten years since that forecast, China has faced a trade war with America, its growth has slowed and its currency has suffered bouts of volatility, obliging it to tighten controls on capital outflows.

      自這一預測后的十年里,中國面臨著與美國的貿易戰,其經濟增長放緩,人民幣遭受了一輪又一輪的波動,迫使它加強了對資本外流的控制。

      Yet Mr Subramanian’s central prediction has come true.

      然而,薩勃拉曼尼亞的核心預測已經成為現實。

      Based on the book’s original formula, China became the world’s most dominant economy last year.

      根據這本書的原始公式,中國去年成為了世界上最具主導地位的經濟體。

      Its growth slowdown has been no worse (so far) than Mr Subramanian expected and the covid-19 pandemic has helped increase its share of global trade.

      它的增長放緩(到目前為止)并沒有比薩勃拉曼尼亞預期的更糟,而新冠肺炎疫情幫助提高了它在全球貿易中的份額。

      Mr Subramanian successfully predicted how his own index would evolve.

      薩勃拉曼尼亞成功預測了自己的指數將如何發展。

      But does his index successfully capture economic dominance?

      但他的指數是否能成功描述經濟主導地位呢?

      Other authors have included wealth, GDP per person and other proxies for economic sophistication, as well as scale.

      其他作者還囊括了財富、人均GDP和其他衡量經濟成熟度和規模的指標。

      (Our favourite index of a country’s global influence, put together by Francesc Pujol of the University of Navarra, counts the number of times a country appears in the charts of The Economist.)

      (我們最喜歡的一個國家全球影響力指數是由納瓦拉大學的Francesc Pujol編制的,計算的是一個國家出現在《經濟學人》圖表上的次數。)

      These measures give America a bigger edge.

      這些數據表明美國有更大的優勢。

      For the sake of tractability, Mr Subramanian’s measure gives every dollar of exports equal weight.

      為了便于處理,薩勃拉曼尼亞先生給了每一美元的出口相同的權重。

      But some of America’s high-tech exports appear to give it an economic “chokehold” over China that is worth more than their market value.

      但美國的一些高科技出口似乎讓中國有一種經濟“扼殺”感,其價值超過了它們的市場價值。

      Mr Subramanian thought that China’s growing share of GDP and trade could soon elevate its currency into a rival to the dollar.

      薩勃拉曼尼亞認為,中國日益增長的GDP和貿易份額可能很快就會將人民幣提升為美元的競爭對手。

      But China’s yuan has made little headway.

      但中國的人民幣進展甚微。

      That is partly because China has tightened capital controls, a possibility that Mr Subramanian acknowledged.

      這在一定程度上是因為中國收緊了資本管制,薩勃拉曼尼亞曾承認有這種可能性。

      But he thought that if China clung to such controls it would be to keep the yuan cheap (by preventing capital inflows) not to prop the yuan up (by deterring capital outflows).

      但他認為,如果中國堅持采用這樣的管制,那它會(通過阻止資本流入)保持人民幣的低價值,而不是(通過阻止資本外流)來提升人民幣的價值。

      Still, given the sorry record of most economic predictions, the book’s author deserves a handshake and a bow.

      盡管如此,鑒于大多數經濟預測都以失敗告終,這本書的作者值得人們向其致敬。

      譯文由可可原創,僅供學習交流使用,未經許可請勿轉載。

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