Renewables can depress wholesale prices, eg, when the sun creates a midday jolt. This discourages investors in the flexible, gas-powered generation needed to provide backup for windless, cloudy days. “The market dynamics are completely destroyed,” says Peter Terium, boss of RWE, one of the big four. There is talk of paying generators to offer capacity, not supply power. But such payments would add another subsidy distortion to the market.
可再生能源會壓低批發電價，比如在正午太陽當頭時。這也從靈活性上令投資者猶豫不決，因為天然氣發電器需要在無風的陰天里提供后備支援?！笆袌鰟討B完全被破壞了”，四大電力公司之一的RWE老總Peter Terium說。也有人討論，電力公司有償提供產能，而非電力。但這樣的支付方式會被市場扭曲理解為政府的另一項補貼。
The 20 billion national-grid plan is another macro-project meant to channel micro-level exuberance. It assumes that the biggest need will be to supply northern wind power to southern and western consumers. Yet if so, perhaps renewables should be tempered elsewhere. “We have to synchronise infrastructure and renewables”, by allowing new wind and solar projects only where the grid can take delivery of what they produce, says Stephan Kohler, head of the German Energy Agency. Upgrading the grid, to beyond Germany as well as within it, would reduce waste and the risk of instability.
200億的國家電網計劃是另一項用來調節微觀層面繁榮發展的宏觀項目。該計劃認為，當務之急是將北方的風電輸送至南部、西部的消費者家中。倘若如此，其他地區的可再生能源理應有所緩解。我們只能批準那些設立在電網覆蓋范圍內的新風電、太陽能項目，“我們不得不以此來協調基礎設施同可再生能源的關系”，德國能源機構主席Stephan Kohler表示。升級德國境內外的電網將會減少資金浪費，降低不穩定的危險。
But the vision is contested. Expansion of the grid has been thwarted by bureaucrats’ inertia, politicians’ foot dragging and activism by those who hate transmission masts as much as they do nuclear power. Even upgrades to existing lines can mobilise opposition, as in Quickborn, south of Niebull. Hard-core decentralists deny that power must be transmitted over long distances. “You can put the grid development plan directly in the bin,” says Matthias Willenbacher of Juwi, a big builder of solar and wind projects. Bavaria’s aspirations encourage such hopes. When the federal government tried to speed up cuts in the feed-in tariff for solar power, several states put up a fight, forcing a partial retreat. The renewables lobby, like the industrial one, demands stable investment conditions. Solar power will be competitive without subsidies by 2020, the solar lobby insists.
但這種想法頗具爭議。對于擴張電網，懶惰的官員阻擾之，政客們拒絕合作，激進主義者們厭惡核能，卻也同樣憎恨輸電桿。即便是升級現有電路也會引起抗議，就如南尼必爾的quickborm發生的那樣。頑固不化的分散主義者對電力必須長途傳輸的說法予以否認。大型太陽能、風能項目建造商Juwi的Matthias Willenbacher 說，“你可以直接把電網發展計劃扔垃圾箱里”。巴伐利亞州“自給自足”的愿望鼓勵了這種希望。當聯邦政府試圖加速降低太陽能發電的強制入網價格時，一些州挺身而出反抗之，最終迫使政府作出部分退讓。和工業游說團一樣，可再生能源游說團需要穩定的投資環境。太陽能游說團堅稱，截至2020年底，即便是沒有政府補貼，太陽能發電也會頗具競爭力。
Germany is groping for a mix of top-down direction-setting and bottom-up buy-in for its Energiewende to work. The federal government may limit foes of transmission projects to one court challenge. But consultation with citizens is vital, reckons Mr Matthiessen. TenneT, which operates the grid in Schleswig-Holstein, wants to extend the wind park idea to the transmission network, offering stakes in a line along the west coast. But Mr Bockholt, Niebull’s mayor, sounds a warning: Schleswig-Holstein’s plans to harvest its wealth of wind will soon “reach the limits of what is tolerable”.
為保證能源轉型能起作用，德國正在探索一條自上而下發布號令與自下而上逐級買進的混合路子。聯邦政府有權向法庭對轉換項目的妨礙者提出異議。但Matthiessen先生認為，同市民商量才是最重要的。運行席勒斯威格-霍爾斯坦州電網的TenneT公司，想將風力電場的理念延伸為電力傳輸系統，就在向市民出手西海岸沿岸一條電路線的股權。但是尼必爾市市長Bockholt先生對此發出警告：席勒斯威格-霍爾斯州的豐富電力收獲計劃將很快“達到可承受的極限?！?/div>
It is hard to think of a messier and more wasteful way of shifting from fossil and nuclear fuel to renewable energy than the one Germany has blundered into. The price will be high, the risks are large and some effects will be the opposite of what was intended. Greenhouse-gas emissions are likely to be higher than they would have been for quite a while to come. But that does not mean the entire enterprise will fail. Politicians cannot reinvent the Energiewende on the run, but they can stay a step ahead of the risks and push back against the costs—and they are beginning to do so. In the end Germany itself is likely to be transformed.
在將礦物燃料、核燃料向可再生能源轉換上，德國已經誤打誤撞的走出了自己的路子，很難再想出一個比德國的更棘手、更耗資的方式。轉型價格將高居不下，轉型風險巨大、而有些地方也可能事與愿違。在未來很長一段時間內，溫室氣體排放量極有可能比預期中要高。但是這并不意味著能源轉型這項事業將崩潰瓦解。能源轉型計劃已付諸實行，政客們雖無力改造，卻能像德國人正開始做的那樣，預測風險，并壓縮開支。最終可能發生轉變的或許是德國自身。 翻譯：王葭葦
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