The plan will require two transformations, one micro and one macro. The first is an unruly, subsidy-fed explosion of wind, solar and biomass power, a “strange mixture of idealism and greed,” as one energy boss calls it. The second is the effort to pull this into a system providing reliable and affordable electricity. Protagonists of the micro version see themselves as democratising economic and political power. The renewable-energy law entitles anybody who puts in a solar panel or a windmill to sell surplus power to the grid, receiving a generous “feed-in tariff” guaranteed over 20 years. This gives renewable electricity priority over conventional power. Not surprisingly, renewables grew ten times faster than the OECD average from 1990 to 2010 and now account for 20% of electricity output (see chart). The government’s target is 35% by 2020. Germany gets more electricity from renewable sources than any other big country.
能源轉型計劃將需要從微觀和宏觀兩個層面進行轉化。第一個是依靠政府的補貼，大力開發風能、太陽能以及生物能源，某能源老總稱之為一個“理想主義和貪婪主義奇怪的混雜物”。第二個指為把開發出的能源轉入一個能夠提供可靠且可負擔的電流體制所做的努力。微觀版的支持者視自己為民主化經濟和政治力量。每位通過太陽能板或風車向電網出售剩余電力的公民，都可憑借《可再生能源法》賦予的權利，在未來20多年內享受“上網電價補貼政策”。這使人們在可再生能源與傳統能源二者中，優先考慮前者。1990年至2000年間，德國的可再生能源增幅比世界經合組織（OECD）的平均值快十倍自然也不足為奇，如今可再生能源占德國發電量的20%。德國政府的目標是，在2020年將該比率擴大至35%。德國利用可再生能源產電量為所有大型國家之首。
The return on capital can top 20% a year in the best spots. But do not confuse harvesters of sun and wind with electricity plutocrats. “One important goal is to break the monopoly” of the four big power companies that dominate the market, says Hermann Albers, president of the Federal Wind Energy Association. Municipal utility companies plan to boost their share of electricity production from a tenth to at least a fifth by 2020. More than 100 municipalities want to be “100% renewable”.
最佳地點的年資本回報率最多為20%?？赡孪胗秒娏ω旈y們來唬弄太陽能和風能的收獲者們。聯邦風能協會會長Hermann Albers說，“重要目標之一是打破四大電力公司主導市場的壟斷”。市政公用事業公司計劃在2020年前，將自己在電力生產中占得比率從10%，至少提高至20%。逾100個直轄市希望實現“100%利用可再生能源”。
The number of “energy co-operatives” has risen sixfold since 2007, to 586 last year. Solar parks have migrated from farms and family houses to apartment blocks. “Roof exchanges” match owners with investors. Niebull allows only wind farms in which residents can buy stakes, lest landowners become local fat cats and others rebel against the project. In 2010 over 50% of renewable-energy capacity was in the hands of individuals or farmers, according to trend:research, a consultancy. The big four had just 6.5%.
去年 “能源合作項目”數目為586個，是2007年的六倍。太陽能電場也從田間地頭、獨立住宅遷到了公寓大樓。電場主通過“屋頂交換”項目找到匹配的投資者。尼必爾市僅容許風力農場居民購買股份，以免地主搖身變成地方“肥貓”，使其他人反對該項目。據資訊公司trend-research稱，2010年可再生能源產能的一半以上都落入個體或農民手中。四大電力公司僅占6.5%。
This is perking up sleepy regions. Farmers are likelier to remain on the land. Services, from consultants who guide investors through the subsidy jungle to specialist windmill repairmen, have taken root in towns. The taxes paid by Niebull’s wind park are one of the town’s main sources of revenue; in smaller settlements they may be almost the only local source.
這也使那些尚未采取行動的地區開始躍躍欲試。農民們更愿意留在農村。各項服務已在城鎮扎根：從在堆積如山的補助里為投資者引路的顧問，到專業風車維修工。尼必爾風力電廠納的稅費成了城市主要稅收之一，而在一些小地方，風場也許幾乎是地方稅收的唯一來源。
The micro-level works almost too well. Schleswig-Holstein plans to generate three times as much renewable energy as it consumes and to export the surplus south and west. Southern states are keen to produce their own renewable power, too. Bavaria talks of self-sufficiency. The states’ windpower targets add up to double the federal government’s goal of 36 gigawatts by 2020.
微觀層面的似乎運作的太一帆風順了。席勒斯威格-霍爾斯坦計劃生產的可再生能源是原來需求量的三倍，并計劃將剩余電量出口至德國南部、西部的城市。南方各州也熱切期望能自己生產可再生電力。巴伐利亞州提出要自給自足。截至2020年，各州的風能目標合計為聯邦政府36千瓦兆目標的兩倍。
Solar power, which consumes half the total subsidy but provides just a fifth of renewable electricity, is racing ahead of target. The Energiewende raises costs, unsettles supply and provokes resistance at grass-roots level. The system coped with the first influx of renewable energy, says Rainer Baake, who heads a lobby group called Agora Energiewende. But the next 20% will require a transformation.
太陽能的發展超出目標， 它只耗費總補助額的二分之一，卻提供了可再生電力的五分之一。能源轉型抬高了成本，攪亂了供給，還激起草根階層的反抗情緒。游說組織“能源轉型集會”的領導人Rainer Baake說，現有體制應對了首批可再生能源的涌入，然而接下來的20%就需要轉變。
One fight is over who will pay. The most energy-intensive consumers are shielded from the feed-in tariff, leaving ordinary folk, including pensioners and the unemployed, to foot the bill. The nuclear shutdown pushed up industry’s electricity bills relative to its competitors, argues Annette Loske of VIK, which represents big consumers. The political assault on their exemption undermines the confidence they need to invest. An even bigger worry is supply interruptions, which can disrupt factories even if they last for fractions of a second. VIK says they have risen 30% in the past three years. The odds of outright power cuts have jumped.
第一階段的戰役已結束，誰來為之埋單？能源消耗量最大的用戶受上網電價的保護，留下平民百姓，領養老金的老人已經失業人員負擔費用。來自大客戶代理商VIK的Annette Loske辯解道，與競爭對手相比，核電站的關閉抬高了工業的電費。大客戶本需要樹立信心，而針對大客戶免稅的政治攻擊卻漸漸削弱了這份信心。斷電則是另一份更大的煩惱，供電哪怕只中斷幾分之一秒都會擾亂工廠作業。VIK稱，在過去三年里斷電頻率已上升至30%。突然停電的幾率猛增。 翻譯：王葭葦
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