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Europe Germany's energy transformation
歐洲 德國的能源轉型
Energiewende
能源大變身
German plans to cut carbon emissions with renewable energy are ambitious, but they are also risky
德國計劃通過可再生能源削減碳排放。雄偉的能源計劃風險猶存。
“The quieter the evening, the more you hear it,” says Wilfried Bockholt, mayor of Niebull in North Friesland. He mimics the sound of a 55-metre-long rotor whirling round a windmill’s mast. He is a driving force behind the “citizens’ wind park”, but he has mixed feelings. A region famed for broad horizons is now jagged with white spires. “They alter the landscape completely,” he laments.
北弗里蘭縣的尼必爾市市長Wilfried Bockholt說，“夜愈是寂靜，風車的聲音就愈震耳?！彼S即模仿了長達5米的風車翼片在桅桿上急速旋轉的聲音。Bockholt是“市民風電場”背后的推動力量，然而于此項目，他卻是喜憂參半。曾以視野廣闊盛名的尼必爾，現今卻擠滿了高低起伏的白風車。他抱怨道，“風車完全改變了這兒的地形?！?/p>
North Friesland’s wind boom is part of Germany’s Energiewende (energy transformation), a plan to shift from nuclear and fossil fuels to renewables. It was dreamed up in the 1980s, became policy in 2000 and sped up after the Fukushima disaster in March 2011. That led Angela Merkel, the chancellor, to scrap her extension of nuclear power (rather than phasing it out by 2022, as previous governments had planned). She ordered the immediate closure of seven reactors. Germany reaffirmed its clean-energy goals—greenhouse-gas emissions are to be cut from 1990 levels by 40% by 2020 and by 80% by 2050—but it must now meet those targets without nuclear power.
北弗里蘭縣蓬勃發展的風力是德國能源轉型計劃的一部分，該計劃旨在將德國利用的能源從核能、礦物燃料轉變為可再生能源。能源轉型計劃構想于上世紀80年代，于2000年出臺相關政策，并在2011年3月福島災難發生后加快了政策進程。上屆政府曾計劃在2022年前徹底廢除核能，而福島事故促使現任總理安吉拉·默克爾改變對擴大發展核能的態度。她下令立即關閉7座核反應堆。德國重申了本國的清潔能源計劃，即在2020年和2050年，溫室氣體排放量分別比1990年減少40%和80%，但如今德國需在不利用核能的情況下完成目標。
The rest of the world watches with wonder, annoyance—and anticipatory Schadenfreude. Rather than stabilising Europe’s electricity, Germany plagues neighbours by dumping unpredictable surges of wind and solar power. To many theEnergiewende is a lunatic gamble with the country’s manufacturing prowess. But if it pays off Germany will have created yet another world-beating industry, say the gamblers. Alone among rich countries Germany has “the means and will to achieve a staggering transformation of the energy infrastructure”, says Mark Lewis, an analyst at Deutsche Bank.
其他國家看德國的眼神里帶有一絲驚奇，些許厭惡，幸災樂禍。德國理應維護歐洲供電的穩定，現今卻用廉價出售琢磨不定的風能、太陽能給鄰國添堵。對多數人而言，能源轉型計劃就是用德國強大的制造業來進行一場瘋狂的賭博。然而一旦有所回報，德國將創建另一個世界級行業，“賭徒們”如是說。在所有發達國家中，德國是唯一“有方法、有決心完成能源基礎設施交錯轉型”的國家，德意志銀行的分析師Mark Lewis說道。
Much could go wrong. Wholesale electricity prices will be 70% higher by 2025, predicts the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology. Germany must build or upgrade 8,300km (5,157 miles) of transmission lines (not including connections to offshore wind farms). Intermittent wind and sun power creates a need for backup generators, while playing havoc with business models that justify investing in them. Hans-Peter Keitel, president of the Federation of German Industry, likens theEnergiewende to “open-heart surgery”.
仍有很多地方會出現差池。據卡爾斯魯厄理工學院預測，截至2025年，發電成本將整體上漲70%。德國必須修建或升級8300千米（5157英里）的電力傳輸線，其中不包括將海上風電站連到電網的線路。風能、太陽能的間接性在攪亂專為其投資建立的商業模型的同時，也產生了對備用發電機組的需求。德國工業聯合會主席Hans-Peter Keitel就將能源轉型計劃比作“開胸手術”
In May Mrs Merkel sacked the environment minister, Norbert Rottgen, after he led her Christian Democrats to a disastrous defeat in a regional election. His successor is Peter Altmaier, a canny parliamentarian who will share responsibility with the economy minister, Philipp Rosler. In fact Mrs Merkel has taken charge herself. She convenes energy summits with leaders of the 16 states, and promises to incorporate grid operators’ plans into federal law by the end of the year. But even she admits the Energiewende is a “Herculean task”.
今年五月，Norbert Rottgen代表基民盟競選州長失敗，默克爾隨后解除了其環境部長職位，并任命精明謹慎的國會議員Peter Altmaier接任。Altmaier將同財政部長Philipp Rosler共擔重任。事實上，默克爾早已親自接管此事。她召集16個州的州長舉行州長能源峰會，并向各州長保證，將會在今年年底前，把電網運營商的計劃納入聯邦法律。但就連她自己也不得不承認能源轉型計劃是一項異常艱巨的任務。 翻譯：王葭葦
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